Will Scotland become Independent in 2014

Roy Norry2
@roy-norry2
02/16/13 08:46:56PM
2 posts

I think you're right about the EU Ceri. There's no stomach for leaving at the top tables and the rate the EU is making new directives it won't be long now before its too late by law and we'll be totally enshrined. The EU has worked its self into society and law here to such a degree that I think any rhetoric about a referendum went out of the window when Lisbon was signed and our sovereignty surrendered to the EU. So, that's that then. But will Scotland leave the UK? What is that all about. The headlines for months have made great play about Scotland being disappointed they would not automatically remain in the EU if they did, and so, if they want to remain in the EU, why not stay as part of the UK until the day the inevitable happens, and then they will be Europeans, not Scottish and I'm guessing the Scot's will feel fairly teed off with thatrealization. Stay or leave, they're going to be European soon by statute. Just some wild thoughts on it. More immediately of concern to me is that there have been noises in Wales that if the Scot's do leave, then Wales will follow suit and break away from the UK. It's all very unsettling, nations splitting away from nations, massive change all the time, unsettling. My head needs to rest.

Harold Powell
@harold-powell
02/12/13 02:31:43PM
261 posts

Thanks Jeannie. You seem to be very informed on this subject and your observations are appreciated. As an observer from afar, one thing that has bothered me about the current economic situation in the EU is that I can see a de factoTreaty of Versailles, as it were,arising without signatories or ratification. That is: I foresee the young and especially the children of Germany saddled with a mountain of debt ran up by others.The irresponsible members of the EU seem to have the attitude:Vis pour le prsent. When Europe's economy lies in ruins because of the overindulgence of its ever procrastinating, so called, "adult" politicians, what will arise in its place? In the past we have seen terrible things arise from ruins. The same is true for our adolescent President, who, for all appearances, has the mentality of a third grader who has absconded with his parent's Visa Gold Card. Our current spending binge has no parallel in history. And, seemingly, to no effect! As the economy worsens and as the patient grows ever weaker, the only solution offered is for more and more morphine. If we ignore thesymptoms today perhaps the tumor will go away tomorrow? All this whilst he and his future-be-damnedgroupieshost a glamorous, glutinouscarnival backed by the promise that somehow, someday, our children and grandchildren will gladly pay for ourwantonnesstoday!

Jennie
@jennie
02/12/13 03:55:26AM
1 posts

Despite all the rhetoric, Scottish separatists are in the minority as confirmed by poll after poll. For the process of Scotland leaving the Union to even begin, Salmond and the SNP would have to work nigh on a miracle to get the majority vote they need in the 2014 referendum, and all the indications are that it is going the other way.

I would also stress that voting for a nationalist candidate does not equate to the voter wanting independence. The fact that the SNP are the majority party in the Scottish Parliament does not equate to support for independence. Back in Wales I voted Plaid at every election, not because I wanted an independent Wales but because I believed the nationalist candidate would best represent my locality and had a better understanding of local needs. Variations of this are something you will hear repeatedly from Scots in the independence debate - just because they voted SNP does not mean they want an independent Scotland.

As the intricacies of what independence would actually mean become more and more apparent - what do they keep, what do they take, what debt are they liable for, what assets, what currency would they adopt, would they keep the pound, would they keep the Queen as head of State, what institutions would be retained, shared, absolved? ... and so on, it becomes more apparent that the whole process is not the simplistic affair the SNP have attempted to portray it as, and there are so many questions that they are failing to provide credible answers to. Salmond glibly announces his plans for 'Scottish Independence Day' and asserts how 'Scotland will be competing as an independent country at the 2016 Olympics in Rio' but fails to provide answers to any of the financial or constitutional questions that are repeatedly asked of him and the SNP other than to respond with vague platitudes.

There is very little meat on the bones of the SNP's independence plans and my own personal opinion is that he is perfectly well aware that the vote isn't going to go his way but is attempting to use the whole debate to obtain further devolved powers - the 'devo max' option that the SNP originally wanted on the ballot paper as a third alternative, but were denied.

So whilst there are plenty who may support the idea in principal for historical, patriotic or other reasons (including good old fashioned anti-English resentment), when it comes down to the logistical practicalities of dismantling a 300 year old Union with your nearest neighbour with whom you share a tiny island, it becomes a very different matter and this is reflected in the polls, with support for an independent Scotland decreasing rather than increasing.

With the EU however the opposite is the case. I can assure you that the majority of Brits are sick and tired of the whole undemocratic bureaucratic farce that the EU has become and would happily vote to get out tomorrow, given the chance. As has been pointed out time and time again - the people of the UK voted to join a 'Common Market' a trading group of nations, not a political and fiscal union with a clear agenda to abolish nation states, whereby our laws are dictated by Brussels and we are unable to patrol our own borders.

You won't find many here with a good word to say about the EU and this is also reflected in poll after poll, and indeed the rise of support for UKIP is the clearest indication of that. They are now a fourth party political force in the UK on a par with the Lib Dems, and are proving a very credible threat to the Conservative vote. The fact is, we could leave the EU tomorrow and it would make very little difference to our modus operandi, other than we would be 53 million a day better off and would regain some control over our laws, borders and fishing waters just for starters.

Anti EU sentiment is not only high in the UK, it is on the rise right across Europe, especially in countries like Finland and The Netherlands. The Euro currency has been an absolute disaster, and the EU is going to have to get its house in order and make some fundamental changes to the way in which it operates, if it is going to survive. If the UK heads for the exit, one of the biggest net contributors to the EU Gravy Train is gone (and there aren't many of those left) something Germany is acutely aware of, hence Merkel's efforts to ensure that we stay by, amongst other things, backing Cameron (much to the chagrin of the French and others) in his recent stance over a reduction in the EU budget, If the UK were to go, it is inevitable that others will follow.

So no, I don't think for a moment that Scotland will leave the Union and become a separate and independent country (although there may well be further devolution), but there is a real possibility of the UK leaving the EU, or at the very least, negotiating a much looser relationship based on trade, rather than political and fiscal Union.

Harold Powell
@harold-powell
01/17/13 03:26:48PM
261 posts

I have no opinion either way. But we do have an acquaintance in Edinburgh (my daughter's age) who is quite keen on the idea of Independence for Scotland.

Ceri Shaw
@ceri-shaw
01/16/13 11:18:40PM
568 posts

Maybe, yes and no I think Scottish independence is very much on the cards but I don't think Britain will leave the E.U.

Harold Powell
@harold-powell
01/16/13 10:07:11PM
261 posts

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updated by @harold-powell: 11/11/15 10:38:43PM