Forum Activity for @jennie

Despite all the rhetoric, Scottish separatists are in the minority as confirmed by poll after poll. For the process of Scotland leaving the Union to even begin, Salmond and the SNP would have to work nigh on a miracle to get the majority vote they need in the 2014 referendum, and all the indications are that it is going the other way.

I would also stress that voting for a nationalist candidate does not equate to the voter wanting independence. The fact that the SNP are the majority party in the Scottish Parliament does not equate to support for independence. Back in Wales I voted Plaid at every election, not because I wanted an independent Wales but because I believed the nationalist candidate would best represent my locality and had a better understanding of local needs. Variations of this are something you will hear repeatedly from Scots in the independence debate - just because they voted SNP does not mean they want an independent Scotland.

As the intricacies of what independence would actually mean become more and more apparent - what do they keep, what do they take, what debt are they liable for, what assets, what currency would they adopt, would they keep the pound, would they keep the Queen as head of State, what institutions would be retained, shared, absolved? ... and so on, it becomes more apparent that the whole process is not the simplistic affair the SNP have attempted to portray it as, and there are so many questions that they are failing to provide credible answers to. Salmond glibly announces his plans for 'Scottish Independence Day' and asserts how 'Scotland will be competing as an independent country at the 2016 Olympics in Rio' but fails to provide answers to any of the financial or constitutional questions that are repeatedly asked of him and the SNP other than to respond with vague platitudes.

There is very little meat on the bones of the SNP's independence plans and my own personal opinion is that he is perfectly well aware that the vote isn't going to go his way but is attempting to use the whole debate to obtain further devolved powers - the 'devo max' option that the SNP originally wanted on the ballot paper as a third alternative, but were denied.

So whilst there are plenty who may support the idea in principal for historical, patriotic or other reasons (including good old fashioned anti-English resentment), when it comes down to the logistical practicalities of dismantling a 300 year old Union with your nearest neighbour with whom you share a tiny island, it becomes a very different matter and this is reflected in the polls, with support for an independent Scotland decreasing rather than increasing.

With the EU however the opposite is the case. I can assure you that the majority of Brits are sick and tired of the whole undemocratic bureaucratic farce that the EU has become and would happily vote to get out tomorrow, given the chance. As has been pointed out time and time again - the people of the UK voted to join a 'Common Market' a trading group of nations, not a political and fiscal union with a clear agenda to abolish nation states, whereby our laws are dictated by Brussels and we are unable to patrol our own borders.

You won't find many here with a good word to say about the EU and this is also reflected in poll after poll, and indeed the rise of support for UKIP is the clearest indication of that. They are now a fourth party political force in the UK on a par with the Lib Dems, and are proving a very credible threat to the Conservative vote. The fact is, we could leave the EU tomorrow and it would make very little difference to our modus operandi, other than we would be 53 million a day better off and would regain some control over our laws, borders and fishing waters just for starters.

Anti EU sentiment is not only high in the UK, it is on the rise right across Europe, especially in countries like Finland and The Netherlands. The Euro currency has been an absolute disaster, and the EU is going to have to get its house in order and make some fundamental changes to the way in which it operates, if it is going to survive. If the UK heads for the exit, one of the biggest net contributors to the EU Gravy Train is gone (and there aren't many of those left) something Germany is acutely aware of, hence Merkel's efforts to ensure that we stay by, amongst other things, backing Cameron (much to the chagrin of the French and others) in his recent stance over a reduction in the EU budget, If the UK were to go, it is inevitable that others will follow.

So no, I don't think for a moment that Scotland will leave the Union and become a separate and independent country (although there may well be further devolution), but there is a real possibility of the UK leaving the EU, or at the very least, negotiating a much looser relationship based on trade, rather than political and fiscal Union.